by Eren Ucer, Professors Reis & McBride
A Growing Connection
While seemingly an isolated activity, fantasy sports can directly and indirectly affect the development of gambling practices amongst those who participate in them. Both activities share a common feature: they are rooted in the statistics of the game. That is, success in both fantasy sports games and sports betting requires accurate predictions of statistical performance for various players and teams. Just as fantasy managers select athletes for their roster based on projections and narratives for their performance, oddsmakers in Vegas create betting lines for these players based on similar statistical models and narratives. Both sectors aim to eliminate bias arising from personal fandom and focus solely on objective statistics and analytics to determine player performance. With advances in computer technology, the software and programs that power statistical models have become increasingly complex and accurate, and are even used by front offices across various professional sports leagues. While betting and fantasy require a degree of luck (such as with injury risk, trades, suspensions, etc.), knowing how to interpret these analytical models and the context behind them is how fantasy players gain the advantage.
To elucidate this point, we can give an imaginary example. Let us say “Player X” is a point guard in the NBA, and recently he has been on a hot streak! In 6 out his last games, has made at least two 3-point shots per game. A manager in a fantasy league has been keeping tack of Player X’s performance, and he sees that his next game is against an NBA team that ranks poorly on defense, providing a path for a potential big game. This manager, eager that Player X may play well, checks the odds on a sportsbook app which shows a “+120” line if Player X makes 2 or more pointer shots. That is +with +120 odds, if Player X make 2+ three pointers, out imaginary beffor will win $1.20 for every dollar bet. Someone who plays fantasy sports, who has knowledge of Player X’s recent form on a more in-depth level, and the relative quality of his opponent for that night, will be much more inclined and educated to place this bet compared to the average fan, who may not know the context behind the betting odds. While just a hypothetical example of one specific situation, this type of analytical reasoning is what may be driving this growing trend of sports betting participation being linked to fantasy. Having prior knowledge, insight, and intuition to decipher how a player or team will perform on a given day, or throughout an entire season, gives these engaged in fantasy sports greater confidence when approaching the betting world.
Experts within the fields of psychology and sports management have studied this growing trend, with a number of papers having been published linking fantasy sports participation with sports betting . in a joint study between the Health Education and Addiction Studies Department of Eastern Carolina University and Harvard Medical School, a marked connection was reported between fantasy sports participation and development of DSM-5 Gambling Disorder symptoms amongst males and females. The male population of the study was found to engage in fantasy sports at a much higher rate (28.2%) compared to female (21.1%). Results indicated that amongst fantasy participants, endorsement of DSM-5 gambling disorder symptoms was 5x more prevalent compared to those who did not play fantasy. The discrepancy was surprisingly larger amongst the female population, in which 25% of those who played fantasy sports endorsed DSM-5 GD criteria, compared to less than 2% for females who did not play fantasy at all. Additionally, amongst college students who “wager” money in their fantasy leagues (i.e. paying league dues, the researchers report that they “had higher rates of gambling problem endorsement than participants who played for no money, and this appeared to be driven by male participations.” The findings from this study elucidate that fantasy participation, regardless of gender or manner of play style, is correlated with the development of problem gambling behaviors amongst college-aged students. To give context to the aforementioned “larger dues”, fantasy leagues and their members may agree with each other before the season to each pitch in a set amount of cash ($10, $20, etc.), with the winning manager taking the pot. This is generally done internally between the people engaged in the league, and the money is not sent to a larger sportsbook company or the fantasy company itself. Managers may choose to do this to increase the league’s stakes and add an incentive to take the league more seriously. Since a form of money is involved, people tend to track their teams more diligently, which aids the league’s overall competitiveness.
Another study from the Journal of Public Policy and Marketing reported a marked connection between those who engaged in fantasy sports and the development of gambling behaviors. Specifically, the researchers reported “that sports fanship unconditionally drives gambling behaviors through P2P (pay-to-play) fantasy sports play. An additional analysis confirms this mediated relationship: even if the individual plays only free fantasy sports games, sports fandom increases gambling behavior through participation in fantasy sports, even for non-materialistic players. This finding lends credence to the idea that gambling behaviors increase universally among fantasy participants, regardless of whether they wager money in their fantasy sports leagues, and whether their sports fandom is driven by materialism (e.g., they’re in it to win money). There will certainly always be fans who lie to wager their money on sports, either through official channels or on the side with their friends. However, it is the fact that exposure to fantasy in a purely free manner also leads to the development of gambling behaviors that is most concerning.
To elucidate why this connection between fantasy and sports betting seems to arise, the motivating factors behind each activity must be acknowledged. Specifically, it is important to understand why people choose to play fantasy sports and engage in sports betting in the first place, and how participation in one affects the other. In a 2011 study in the Journal of Gambling Studies on the effects of personality on fantasy sports participation, the concept of “Locus of Control” was investigated. Specifically, the researchers noted that having a higher sense of self-agency was quoted to be “significantly associated with favorable attitudes toward fantasy sports game participation.” Since fantasy sports is viewed as a skill-based game, those who engage in it must have enough confidence in their abilities to build a strong roster and make sound decisions throughout the season. This belief of having “control” over one’s destiny is commonly seen amongst gamblers who believe their own “methods” of approach are superior to others, which can motivate them to continue gambling. In a 2013 study in the Journal of Sports Management, the authors sought to examine the relationship between the biased effects of sports knowledge and expected winning percentages among fantasy players and bettors. Specifically, the authors noted that expert bettors believed that information inflated their perceived winning probability, whereas in fact they were no better at picking winning bets than random selections. The same study also quotes that “research has shown that competent and frequent users of online technology, which is often used in the participation in fantasy sports, may be at risk for gambling addiction as they are more attracted to technologically – advanced gambling venues, such as online games and mobile gaming.”
The reference to the mobile nature of fantasy sports and sports betting participation is particularly relevant to younger sports fans. As previously stated, sports consumership is becoming increasingly digitalized, and those growing up in this online environment will be the ones molded by its influence the most. Since younger fans will have no reference of sports comsumership before the legalization of gambling., or the prevalence of fantasy games, they will normalize the presence of these activities within their daily lives. Studies from Europe have already shown a startling rise in underage gambling being linked to the increased digitalization with the sports industry. In a 2016 study from the University of Zagreb’s Department of Behavioral Disorders, amongst a sample of 1330 Croatian male high school students, researchers reported that the majority of boys had been involved in sports betting even though they were underage, and that 24% of male high-school students had already developed severe psychosocial consequences related to gambling. While such widespread studies investigating sports betting rates amongst American youth are not as prominent within American journals, the general trend of sports digitalization and the effects of sports betting can be interpolated on a worldwide scale. It is clear that online access to fantasy sports services are a way in which people can gain more knowledge about sports and player performance, which can in turn increase one’s sense of “control” over betting-based landscapes can prove to be valuable in elucidating their connection.
